Just finished reading this article while waiting for my fiancee to come and look at the cutest picture of rodent murder I've ever seen (see my last emptying pockets entry). I'm pretty concerned about how the markets will react to the drop in supply of corn state-side due to this year's drought, so hearing that China and India are expecting long-term crises in this area in the foreseeable future is alarming, to say the least.
Let's string a few concepts together; first, global warming is affecting the rates and spatiality of precipitation world wide, which is causing some glaciers to enlarge and some glaciers to shrink. Second, many of the major rivers in Central Asia are dependent on melting from the aforementioned glaciers to maintain their average discharge. Finally, the people living in these areas are dependent on a relatively stable river discharge to support not only life, but the basic infrastructure of the economy such as water for irrigation and for industrial applications.
A long-lasting drought could not only have rather severe food implications, but could lead to territorial disputes over little used water sources, and loud arguments over any water partitioning agreements laid in the past. Disputes between Pakistan and India are common for a number of reasons, water being among them.. Is it unreasonable to expect armed turmoil over water resources when economies and lives are on the line? I don't think so, rather I think it would be prudent to expect such conflict and lay the groundwork to deal with it down the line now.
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